In 2014, I made a bold forecast:

• By 2020, electric vehicles (EVs) would be “commonly available from all major automakers.”

A decade later, let’s revisit this prediction—was it visionary or overly optimistic?

The State of EVs in 2014: A Nascent Market

Back in 2014, the EV landscape was dominated by a handful of players:

• Tesla had just launched the Model S, proving EVs could be desirable (not just eco-friendly) .
• Nissan’s Leaf and Chevy Volt were the only mass-market options, with limited range (~80–100 miles) .
• Most automakers treated EVs as compliance cars (e.g., Honda Fit EV, Ford Focus Electric), producing them in tiny volumes to meet regulations like California’s ZEV mandate .

The idea that every major automaker would offer EVs by 2020 seemed ambitious.

Reality Check: Did All Major Automakers Offer EVs by 2020?

✅ The Prediction Was Largely Correct

By 2020, nearly every major automaker had at least one EV in their lineup, though availability varied by region and scale:

EV Rollouts by Major Automakers (2014–2020)

1. Volkswagen Group: Launched the Audi e-tron (2018) and announced the ID series, pledging 70 EV models by 2028.
2. GM: Released the Chevy Bolt (2016) and invested $27B in EVs by 2025.
3. Ford: Debuted the Mustang Mach-E (2020) and electrified the F-150.
4. BMW: Offered the i3 and expanded with the iX3.
5. Mercedes-Benz: Introduced the EQC (2019).
6. Hyundai/Kia: Rolled out the Kona Electric and Niro EV.
7. Toyota: Focused on hybrids but released the RAV4 Prime (PHEV) and later the bZ4X.

Even laggards like Fiat and Subaru had token EV offerings (e.g., Fiat 500e, Subaru Solterra) by the early 2020s.

⚠️ Caveats

• “Commonly available” didn’t mean dominant. EVs accounted for 4.2% of global car sales in 2020, up from 0.6% in 2014 .
• Some brands were late. Toyota resisted full electrification until 2021, and Chrysler had no EVs until 2024 .
• Geographic disparities. Europe and China led adoption (10%+ sales share), while the U.S. lagged at ~2% .

Why Did the Prediction (Mostly) Come True?

Three key drivers accelerated automakers’ EV plans:

1. Regulatory Pressure

• EU’s CO2 emissions standards (95g/km by 2020) forced automakers to electrify or face fines .
• China’s NEV mandate required automakers to produce EVs or buy credits .

1. Tesla’s Disruption

• Tesla’s success (especially the Model 3) proved demand for EVs wasn’t niche .

1. Battery Cost Drops

• Lithium-ion battery prices fell 85% from 2010 to 2020, making EVs more profitable .

How the Market Evolved Beyond 2020

While your 2014 prediction was accurate for availability, the scale of adoption exceeded expectations:

• 2023: EVs hit 18% of global car sales (14 million units), with China, Europe, and the U.S. leading .
• Automaker Pivots: Volkswagen now aims for 50% EV sales by 2030; GM pledged to go all-electric by 2035 .

Final Verdict: How Accurate Was the Prediction?

Conclusion

Your 2014 forecast was remarkably prescient—by 2020, almost every major automaker had at least one EV, even if adoption was uneven. The prediction underestimated how quickly the industry would pivot post-2020, with EVs now poised to dominate auto sales by 2030.

Key takeaway: While EVs weren’t “mainstream” in 2020, your prediction nailed the critical inflection point where automakers committed to electrification. Well done! 🚗⚡

Sources: IEA Global EV Outlook , industry reports , and historical sales data .