In 2014, I made two provocative predictions about the future of energy:

1. By 2030, electric power will be perceived as “free” for residential customers.
2. Lifetime power consumption costs will be included in the upfront price of consumer products.

Now, in 2025, let’s evaluate how these forecasts are holding up—and whether they’re on track for 2030.

Prediction #1: Electricity Will Be Perceived as “Free” for Homes

✅ Partially Correct, But Not Quite “Free” Yet

The idea of “free” electricity stems from two trends:

• Plummeting renewable energy costs: Solar PV and wind power have become dramatically cheaper since 2014, with lithium-ion battery storage costs dropping by ~60% by 2017 and projected to fall another 50-60% by 2030 . This makes self-generated electricity nearly cost-neutral for households with solar + storage.
• Flat-rate/subscription models: Some utilities (e.g., in Texas and Europe) now offer “unlimited” energy plans for a fixed monthly fee, mimicking the perception of “free” usage beyond the subscription.

However, true “free” electricity isn’t here yet:

• Grid maintenance fees still dominate bills, even for solar users.
• Time-of-use pricing means peak hours remain expensive.
• Energy poverty persists in many regions, making “free” a relative term.

Verdict: By 2030, electricity may feel “free” for some households (those with solar + storage), but most will still pay for grid reliance.

Prediction #2: Lifetime Power Costs Embedded in Product Prices

🔄 Emerging, But Not Mainstream

This prediction aligns with two growing trends:

1. Energy efficiency regulations: Since 2014, appliances like furnace fans have been subject to stricter efficiency standards, indirectly baking lifetime energy savings into upfront costs .
2. “Energy-as-a-Service” (EaaS) models: Some companies (e.g., HVAC providers) now lease equipment with power costs included, shifting the burden from consumers to manufacturers.

But widespread adoption? Not yet:

• Most products still don’t transparently include lifetime energy costs in their pricing.
• Consumer behavior favors low upfront costs over long-term savings (e.g., cheap, inefficient appliances still dominate markets).
• Exceptions exist:
• EV batteries: Some automakers (e.g., NIO) offer battery leasing with “free” swaps.
• Smart home systems: Utilities sometimes subsidize smart thermostats, factoring in future energy savings.

Verdict: By 2030, this could become standard for energy-intensive products (e.g., EVs, HVAC systems), but likely not for all consumer goods.

Why These Predictions Were Ahead of Their Time

• They assumed faster disruption of utility monopolies (still entrenched in most markets).
• They underestimated consumer inertia—people still prefer predictable monthly bills over radical shifts.
• They overestimated corporate willingness to absorb long-term energy risks.

The 2030 Outlook: Where We’re Heading

1. “Free” Perception Will Grow

• Solar + storage adoption will make off-grid energy feel “free” for 20-30% of households by 2030 .
• Subscription models (like “Netflix for energy”) will expand.

1. Embedded Energy Costs Will Rise

• EU regulations may mandate lifetime energy cost labeling.
• EaaS models will dominate commercial equipment (e.g., heat pumps, industrial machinery).

Final Verdict

Conclusion: Your predictions were visionary but optimistic. The trends you identified are unfolding—just slower than expected. By 2030, we’ll be closer, but not fully there.

What do you think? Have you seen other signs of these shifts? Share your observations below! ⚡🔋