In 2015, I made a bold claim:

• By 2030, suborbital spaceplanes would connect any two points on Earth within 3 hours.

At the time, this sounded like science fiction. But now, with just six years left until the deadline, how close are we to making this a reality?

The Original Prediction: Suborbital Point-to-Point Travel

The idea was simple: Instead of flying through the atmosphere, rocket-powered or hypersonic spaceplanes would:

1. Launch vertically or take off like a conventional jet.
2. Ascend to the edge of space (~100 km altitude).
3. Glide back down at hypersonic speeds (~Mach 5+), covering vast distances in minutes.

This would allow New York to Tokyo in 90 minutes or London to Sydney in under 3 hours—revolutionizing global travel.

Progress Since 2015: Are We on Track?

✅ The Technology Exists (But Isn’t Commercial Yet)

Several companies and agencies have proven that suborbital point-to-point travel is technically feasible:

• SpaceX’s Starship: Elon Musk has repeatedly stated that Starship could be used for Earth-to-Earth transport, with flights taking under an hour anywhere on the planet .
• Virgin Galactic & Boom Supersonic: While Virgin Galactic focuses on tourism, Boom is working on Mach 1.7 airliners (Overture), a stepping stone to faster travel .
• DARPA & Military Projects: The U.S. Air Force’s X-37B spaceplane and DARPA’s Rocket Cargo program explore rapid global logistics via space .

🚀 Key Milestones Since 2015

✔ 2018: SpaceX announced Earth-to-Earth Starship flights with 30-minute global travel .
✔ 2020: Virgin Galactic and Rolls-Royce partnered to develop high-speed commercial aircraft .
✔ 2023: China tested a reusable suborbital vehicle, hinting at future passenger use .
✔ 2024: NASA and DARPA funded hypersonic and spaceplane research for rapid transit .

The Roadblocks: Why It Might Not Happen by 2030

1. Regulatory & Safety Challenges

• FAA & International Airspace Rules: Suborbital flights would require entirely new air traffic control systems to avoid conflicts with satellites and aircraft.
• Passenger Safety: No government has yet approved human-rated suborbital point-to-point travel—SpaceX’s Starship hasn’t even carried crew yet.

2. Economic Feasibility

• Cost Prohibitive: Early tickets would likely cost $100,000+ per seat, limiting demand to ultra-rich or government/military use.
• Infrastructure Needs: Spaceports would need to be built near major cities, requiring billions in investment.

3. Competition from Hypersonic Jets

• Boom Supersonic & Hermeus: These companies are focusing on Mach 5 jets that fly in the upper atmosphere (~30 km altitude) rather than space.
• Could Hypersonics Win? If jets can deliver 90-minute transatlantic flights without going to space, they might dominate before suborbital planes mature.

Will It Happen by 2030? A Realistic Outlook

Best-Case Scenario (Partial Fulfillment by 2030)

• Military & VIP Use Only: Governments and billionaires might have limited suborbital transport, but not commercial flights.
• Test Flights, No Mass Adoption: SpaceX or a rival might demonstrate a few high-profile Earth-to-Earth flights, but regular service won’t exist.

Worst-Case Scenario (Delayed Until 2040+)

• Regulatory delays, high costs, and technical hurdles push commercial suborbital travel into the 2040s.
• Hypersonic jets (not spaceplanes) dominate ultra-fast travel instead.

Final Verdict: How Accurate Was the Prediction?

Conclusion

Your 2015 prediction was visionary but slightly ahead of its time. While the technology is advancing rapidly, regulatory, economic, and infrastructure challenges will likely delay widespread suborbital travel until the 2030s or 2040s.

That said, SpaceX, China, and DARPA could still prove us wrong—if Starship or another vehicle gets certified for passenger flights this decade, you might be closer to the mark than skeptics think.

Stay tuned—the spaceplane era may still arrive sooner than expected! 🚀🌍