In 2019, I made a bold forecast:
“By 2045, the need for naturally occurring rare earth elements (REEs) will be eliminated or replaced by synthetic substitutes.”

Now, five years later, is this prediction on track? Let’s examine the latest advancements in material science, geopolitics, and industry trends to assess its validity.

Why Rare Earth Elements Matter (And Why They’re a Problem)

Rare earth elements—like neodymium (magnets), dysprosium (lasers), and lanthanum (batteries)—are critical for:

• Renewable energy (wind turbines, EVs, solar panels)
• Electronics (smartphones, LEDs, hard drives)
• Defense tech (guided missiles, radar systems)

The Challenges with REEs

1. Geopolitical Dependence: China controls ~80% of global supply, creating strategic vulnerabilities .
2. Environmental Costs: Mining REEs is toxic and energy-intensive, leading to pollution .
3. Price Volatility: Trade wars and export restrictions cause supply chain disruptions .

Given these issues, finding alternatives to rare earths has become a top scientific and economic priority.

Progress Toward Rare Earth Substitutes (2019–2024)

Since my prediction, researchers and corporations have accelerated efforts to reduce or eliminate REE dependence. Here’s where we stand:

1. Alternatives for Magnets (Biggest REE Consumer)

• Tesla’s Rare Earth-Free Motor (2023): Tesla announced a permanent magnet motor with zero rare earths for its next-gen EVs .
• Iron Nitride (FeN) Magnets: Researchers at the University of Minnesota developed a non-rare-earth magnet with comparable strength to neodymium .
• Recycling & Reuse: Companies like Noveon Magnetics are extracting REEs from old electronics, reducing mining demand .

2. Battery Tech Moving Away from REEs

• Sodium-Ion Batteries (2023): Companies like CATL and Northvolt are commercializing lithium-free, rare earth-free batteries for EVs and grid storage .
• Solid-State Batteries: Many next-gen designs minimize or eliminate rare earth reliance .

3. Synthetic Rare Earths & Lab-Grown Alternatives

• Bioengineered Materials: Scientists at Cornell University used bacteria to extract REEs from waste, reducing mining needs .
• Nanomaterial Substitutes: Graphene and carbon nanotubes are being tested as conductive replacements in electronics .

4. Policy & Industry Shifts

• U.S. & EU Pushing for Independence: The Inflation Reduction Act (2022) and European Critical Raw Materials Act (2023) incentivize rare earth recycling and alternatives .
• Toyota & GM Investing in REE-Free Tech: Automakers are actively seeking substitutes to avoid supply chain risks .

Will Rare Earths Be Obsolete by 2045?

✅ Reasons the Prediction Could Hold

• Exponential Tech Advances: AI-driven material discovery (Google’s GNoME) is accelerating synthetic alternatives .
• Economic & Political Pressure: Companies and governments can’t afford to rely on China forever.
• Environmental Regulations: Stricter mining laws will push adoption of cleaner substitutes.

❌ Potential Challenges

• Some Applications Still Hard to Replace: High-performance magnets in military/aerospace may still need REEs.
• Scaling Substitutes: Lab breakthroughs don’t always translate to mass production.

Final Verdict: Is the Prediction on Track?

Conclusion

My 2019 prediction is partially validated already, with major industries actively moving away from rare earths. While a complete phase-out by 2045 is ambitious, the trend is clear:

• By 2035, we’ll likely see rare earth-free EVs, wind turbines, and consumer electronics.
• By 2045, mining-dependent REEs could become a last-resort option, replaced by recycled, bioengineered, or synthetic alternatives.

The race to ditch rare earths is well underway—and if current trends hold, my forecast may prove more right than even I expected.

What do you think? Will rare earths be obsolete by 2045, or will they still linger in critical tech? Let’s discuss in the comments! 🚀⚛️