I’ll keep it simple and explicit about assumptions so you can understand them.

Baseline assumptions (so we’re on the same page)

• Median U.S. household pretax income “today”: ~$80k (round number).
• Spending mix: ~70% services, ~30% goods. China dominates a big slice of goods (electronics, apparel, furniture, toys, tools, many car parts, solar gear, e-bikes, etc.).
• Shock: China output/exports collapse for several years; U.S. replaces supply with domestic/near-shore (Mexico, Vietnam, India) at higher cost + capacity constraints.
• Policy: Fed fights inflation (rates stay higher for longer); government throws money at reshoring.

Headline results (my best central estimate)

• Years 0–3: Real pain. CPI runs +3–5 percentage points above baseline for 2–3 years; unemployment +1–2 pp; mortgage/auto rates stay elevated.
  Median family: real after-tax purchasing power down ~6–10%; out-of-pocket spending up $5k–$9k/year versus baseline.
• Years 3–10: Supply diversifies; automation/near-shoring scale up. Inflation cools, wages catch up some.
  Median family: real income gap narrows to ~–1% to –3% vs pre-shock trend (call it $1.5k–$2.5k/year worse than the world-with-China).
• Years 10–20: New equilibrium. Higher domestic capital stock, more resilient supply, somewhat higher structural prices but better middle-skill wages in tradable sectors.
  Median family: ends up ~+2% to +5% above pre-shock trend in real income if the reshoring/jobs/automation flywheel actually spins. If it sputters, expect flat.

Where the pain shows up (first 3 years)

Approximate price bumps relative to “normal”:

• Electronics/phones/computers: +20–40% initially; availability issues.
• Appliances/furniture/tools/toys: +10–25%.
• Clothing/footwear: +8–15%.
• Cars/parts, tires, EV batteries: +10–20%; longer waits; repair parts delays.
• Solar, inverters, e-bikes, power tools: +20–40%; home energy upgrades slip.
• Groceries: indirect +1–3% from packaging/equipment inputs.
• Services: pressure from higher goods costs + wages; +1–3% spillover.
• Mortgage/auto rates: stay higher; refinancing relief delayed.

A typical median family budget sees ~$400–$750 more per month for 24–36 months, mostly from durable goods, car costs, and higher financing rates.

Jobs & wages

• Short run: layoffs in retail/logistics tied to missing inventory; factory hiring ramps but starts slow; unemployment +1–2 pp. Wage growth lags inflation → real wage dip.
• Medium run: manufacturing/automation, construction, energy equipment, and logistics hiring offset losses; wage growth improves—especially for technicians, electricians, machinists, CDL drivers, and industrial maintenance.
• Long run: tradable-sector pay premia modestly higher; more apprenticeship/credential pathways; better job security vs single-country dependency.

Housing & wealth

• Home prices: mixed. Rates suppress demand; materials/labor costs hold up prices for new builds. Net: sideways to slightly down near term, then resume trend.
• Mortgages: many households stay “rate-locked.” Fewer moves, tight inventory.
• Stocks: near-term volatility (retail/consumer electronics down; industrial automation, rail, ports, Mexican/Indian suppliers up). 20-yr outlook fine if supply chains re-root successfully.
• 401k/529: short dip, then track broader productivity path.

Two scenarios to bracket the 20-year outcome

A) Messy decoupling (worse case): Coordination fails, litigation/controls whipsaw, and capacity builds too slowly.

• 0–3 yrs: –10 to –15% real income hit; shortages.
• 3–10 yrs: lingering –3 to –5% vs trend.
• 10–20 yrs: roughly flat to +2%.
• Lived reality: tighter budgets, delayed big purchases, slower energy transition.

B) Managed transition (my central case): Aggressive but coherent policy; fasttrack permits; immigration for skilled trades; tax credits for capex; Mexico/India/Vietnam scale up.

• 0–3 yrs: –6 to –10% real hit.
• 3–10 yrs: –1 to –3%.
• 10–20 yrs: +2 to +5%.
• Lived reality: rough 2–3 years, then decent wage gains and more resilient supply.

What changes in daily life

• You keep phones/laptops/appliances longer; repair culture grows.
• More Made in USA/Nearby labels—higher sticker prices, better parts availability over time.
• More waitlists for cars and certain electronics.
• Trades become hot: kids get pitched mechatronics instead of MBAs.
• Home energy upgrades slower/ pricier at first; domestic solar/storage takes a few years to scale.

Ballpark family budget example (year 1–2 shock)

• Electronics/appliances refresh deferred but when purchased: +$800–$1,500/year (averaged).
• Auto (purchase/repairs/tires/insurance effects): +$900–$1,600/year.
• Clothing/household goods: +$400–$800/year.
• Interest (car loan/CC carry, not mortgage if fixed): +$300–$900/year.
• Services pass-through: +$300–$700/year.
  Total: +$2,700 to $5,500/year (lean case) up to +$9k (if you hit a car + fridge + laptop in the same year).

Wildcards that move the needle

• Semiconductors: If U.S./ally fabs ramp faster than expected, electronics pain eases a lot.
• Energy prices: If oil/gas stay calm, it softens everything. A spike makes it worse.
• Policy execution: Permitting, grid upgrades, and workforce training are kingmakers.
• Allied capacity: How fast Mexico/India/Vietnam scale, and how smooth the logistics.

What a median family can do about it

• Lock a fixed-rate mortgage if moving; otherwise don’t chase refi until rates truly fall.
• Stagger big purchases; buy durable, repairable models; grab critical spares (phone batteries, tires, filters).
• Consider used/refurb electronics; extend warranties only on high-failure items.
• Upskill toward trades/automation/QA/logistics—or encourage kids that way.
• Invest (prudently) in reshoring beneficiaries (industrial automation, power equipment, rail/ports, North American suppliers) rather than consumer importers.