There is a difference between economic success and economic storytelling. One is measured across full cycles, long charts, and uncomfortable context. The other is engineered with careful cropping, selective start dates, and a loud voice repeating the most flattering percentage available.
If, in April 2026, the Trump administration declares that the stock market is “up nearly 50% year-over-year,” the number will be correct.
And the conclusion will still be false.
Because the story they will be telling begins at the wrong place—and carefully avoids the one number that ruins the illusion.
That number is 6,100.
Where the Market Actually Was
Before the policy turbulence of early 2025, the S&P 500 was trading around 6,100. Not euphoric. Not cheap. Just strong—reflecting years of earnings growth, technological expansion, and global capital preference for U.S. markets.
This matters, because 6,100 is the real baseline for judging performance.
What followed was not a secret plot or deliberate crash, but something more mundane and more dangerous: avoidable instability. Rapid-fire policy announcements, contradictory signals on trade and regulation, and a governing style that treated uncertainty as leverage rather than risk.
Markets responded the way they always do when confidence erodes: they stepped back.
By April 2025, the S&P 500 had fallen to 4,982.77.
That drop—roughly 18% from the earlier ~6,100 level—was not destiny. It wasn’t baked into global economics. It was the price of political noise injected into a system that values predictability above all else.
The market didn’t collapse.
It flinched.
And that flinch would later become politically priceless.
The Rebound That Everyone Will Pretend Was Magic
As 2025 progressed, the turbulence subsided. Policies were clarified. Rhetoric cooled. Agencies resumed normal signaling. And—crucially—the forces that were already driving growth continued doing their work:
- AI capital investment accelerated
- Corporate earnings improved
- Rate-cut expectations lifted valuations
- Global money flowed back into U.S. assets
The market recovered. Quickly.
By December 1, 2025, the S&P 500 stood at 6,849, surpassing its pre-dip level and continuing upward. Project forward with ordinary momentum and no shocks, and ~7,500 by April 2026 is entirely plausible.
That is a respectable outcome.
From 6,100 to 7,500, the gain is about 23%.
In any normal conversation, that would be called a strong market year.
Solid. Healthy. Nothing to apologize for.
But it is not the story that will be told.
How 23% Becomes “Nearly 50%”
Here is where the deception begins—quietly, mathematically, without lying.
Instead of measuring from 6,100, the administration will measure from 4,982.77.
Instead of acknowledging the dip, they will treat it as an act of nature.
Instead of explaining the recovery, they will claim authorship.
From 4,982.77 to ~7,500, the increase is almost 50% year-over-year.
And suddenly:
- A respectable recovery becomes a “historic boom”
- A return to trend becomes proof of genius
- Stability becomes “transformational leadership”
The same market.
The same endpoint.
A wildly different narrative—produced entirely by choosing the lowest possible starting point.
This is not economics.
It is optical engineering.
Why This Matters
The danger here is not that the market rose. That’s good. The danger is that credit is being misassigned, and incentives are being distorted.
When leaders are rewarded for rebounds rather than consistency, they learn the wrong lesson. Volatility becomes useful. Turbulence becomes optional. The dip becomes a feature, not a bug—because it creates the conditions for a bigger brag later.
If a leader can preside over:
- a fall from 6,100 to 4,982
- then a rebound to 7,500
and receive more praise than if the market had simply risen steadily from 6,100 to 7,500, then the system is broken.
We are telling our leaders—implicitly but clearly—that damage followed by repair is more valuable than competence without drama.
The Cropped Chart Problem
Most Americans will never see the full chart.
They will see:
- “Market up nearly 50% year-over-year”
- “Best performance in decades”
- “Unprecedented gains under this administration”
What they will not see is the cropped left edge—the part where the market fell from strength due to avoidable instability.
They will not be told that the “miracle” required a stumble first.
They will not be told that 23% of the gain simply reflects getting back to where we already were headed.
Call It What It Is
Let’s be clear and fair at the same time:
- 6,100 → 7,500 is good stewardship.
- 4,982 → 7,500 is a dramatic rebound.
- Claiming the second while ignoring the first is deception.
Not a lie.
Something worse.
It is the use of truth to manufacture a false impression.
And if April 2026 brings speeches celebrating a 50% market surge, the correct response is simple:
Show the whole chart.
Because once you do, the miracle shrinks back to its true size—and the applause should with it.
The Inner Monologue 
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