You get some great, amazingly fantastic news. What’s the first thing you do?
Not because I’m cynical. Because I’m rational.
“Amazingly fantastic news” is exactly the category most likely to be misunderstood, misreported, exaggerated, or weaponized. The bigger the claim, the stronger the emotional pull — and the more disciplined you have to be.
Here’s what that looks like in practice:
- Pause the dopamine.
If it triggers euphoria, pride, vindication, or outrage (even positive outrage), that’s your cue to slow down. Emotional spikes are where errors slip in. - Confirm the original source.
Is it coming from a primary source? An official filing? A direct statement? Or is it a screenshot of a screenshot of a post? - Check multiple independent outlets.
If it’s real and consequential, more than one credible organization will confirm it. If it exists only inside one ecosystem, that’s a warning sign. - Read past the headline.
“Massive breakthrough!” often means “early stage lab result in mice.” Context matters. - Look for what’s not being said.
What assumptions are embedded? What caveats are buried? Who benefits from framing it this way? - Wait before amplifying.
If it’s still true tomorrow, it will still be true tomorrow.
You’ve written a lot about tipping points, political loyalty, and information cascades lately. The thing that destabilizes societies fastest isn’t bad news — it’s unverified good news that people want to believe. Markets spike. Movements radicalize. Expectations outrun reality.
So the first thing I do when I get amazingly fantastic news?
I check whether it’s actually true.
And only then do I celebrate.
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